of months? >> i do because presidents have egos. >> they do? >> shocking. joe biden i think there's a good chance he'll push very hard, his pride has always been foreign policy. he's a big supporter of some kind of two-state solution, and he'll have a chance to do that for several months. obviously netanyahu could again wait him out then, but i think there's a possibility. so he'll say a lot of things but not be able to change much until november 5th. >> all right. we're obviously keeping an eye on all this, but i like the prognostication? thank you for your time tonight. that is our show for this evening. "way too early" with jonathan lemire is coming up next. this was a weaponization of government, and that's why it was released 30 days before the election. and there's nothing new in there, by the way. nothing new. they rigged the election. i didn't rig the election. they rigged the election. >> that's former president donald trump slamming the new filing from special counsel jack

smith. we'll dig into that blockbuster new document and what prosecutors are saying about trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election. plus we'll bring you the latest from the middle east as israel continues to launch air strikes targeted at hezbollah facilities in lebanon. and also ahead president joe biden visited the carolinas to survey the storm damage left in the wake of hurricane helene. we'll take a look at the ongoing recovery and cleanup efforts. good morning and welcome to "way too early" on this thursday, october 3rd. i'm jonathan lemire. thanks for starting your day with us. and we have a lot to get to this morning, and we'll begin with the new filing from special counsel jack smith that lays out the case for why former president donald trump should still be held accountable for his actions on january 6th

despite the supreme court's ruling on immunity. nbc news justice and intelligence correspondent ken dilanian has all the details. >> reporter: special counsel jack smith fighting to keep the january 6th case against donald trump alive. in a new filing with new evidence, smith tailoring his criminal case to survive the supreme court's ruling that presidents can't be prosecuted for carrying out official acts. writing that although trump was president during the charged conspiracies, his scheme was a fundamentally private one. smith also laying out new details about trump's conduct and conversations in the days and hours before his supporters stormed the capitol on january 6, 2021. after trump began claiming fraud even as votes were still being counted, the special counsel quotes a trump aide as saying, make them riot. but the bulk of new revelations involve trump's interactions with vice president mike pence based on five pages of notes by

the vice president. the special counsel saying pence gradually and gently tried to convince the defendant to accept the lawful results of the election including a private lunch in december where pence encouraged trump not to look at the election as a loss, just an intermission. smith arguing trump and pence were political running mates discussing private acts, not office holders contemplating official ones. after pence decided not to stop the certification and trump denounced him in a tweet, smith recounts aides allegedly telling trump pence was in danger. as trump sat in a white house dining room watching the capitol riot on tv, smith wrote, an aide told him pence had been rushed to a secure location. smith says trump looked at the aide and said only, so what? in a statement a trump campaign spokesman called the filing unconstitutional and another attempt by the harris-biden regime to undermine american democracy and interfere in this lection, adding the case should

be dismissed. >> joining us now msnbc legal analyst and former deputy chief in the criminal division for the southern district of new york, kristi greenberg. kristi, good morning. thanks for starting us off. first, tell us what jumped out at you from this filing? and in your assessment, how strong is jack smith's argument that former president trump should be held accountable for his actions on january 6th? >> so what really jumped out at me was looking at those buckets of interactions with mike pence. a lot of that detail was new. and so in looking at those, the supreme court has said they're talking about official responsibilities, that's official conduct, but you can still even with respect to official conduct rebut a presumption of immunity attaches if you can show there's really no intrusion here on the executive branch. while looking at these interactions with mike pence, it's hard to see how anybody could see this as really having any kind of danger on the

executive branch. you have discussions about the certification on january 6th. and with respect to those communications, he's really just trying to bully mike pence to go along with this. and the executive really has no role whatsoever in that process. so i think those interactions, you know, leading up to january 6th about the certification are really safe. and then you have a whole other bucket of communications with mike pence, where they're really talking to his running mates about whether or not donald trump lost. and even then mike pence kind of doesn't want to say he lost. as you said in the introduction, more like an intermission. a lot of kind of mike pence really dancing around donald trump's ego here. but really trying to get him to concede that, yes, this is a loss, there's no more process here, we have to stand down. that's really discussions between two running mates, that

has nothing to do with their responsibilities as president and vice president. i think the special counsel does a good job of getting into the nitty-gritty, going into the details, and showing why each of these buckets of communications should not be immune from prosecution. >> certainly tailored with the supreme court decision in mind. kristy, talk to us about what happens next on who wins this case? is it completely dependent on who wins the next election? >> he's asking for more time, not surprising he wants to delay here. but i assume that brief will be filed before the election. at least it's scheduled to at this point. but once the election happens, you're absolutely right. if kamala harris is elected, this case proceeds. if she is not, then donald trump would certainly instruct his department of justice to dismiss this case. if kamala harris is elected and this case proceeds, what i

expect after briefing is donald trump's lawyers have said we need to be able to confront witnesses. we want to be able to have a hearing, so i think at least with respect to some of the individuals, not all of the 70 some odd witnesses that are identified in the indictment but at least with respect to some, there may be a hearing where the judge has more fact finding questions about whether or not the acts here are official or unofficial. ultimately, this will get appealed. it will get appealed likely all the way up to the supreme court once gep. >> former deputy chief for the criminal division for the southern district of new york, thank you. we'll talk to you again soon. we'll have much more in this filing including the political fallout ahead of november's election. now, though, we turn to the middle east. eight israeli soldiers have died fighting inside lebanon. it's not known exactly how it happened, but israeli officials

are saying the soldiers were killed in three separate incidents in close combat. these are the first reported casualties since they started the operation earlier this week. it comes as israel launches air strikes targeted facilities. a strikeover night killed at least six people in beirut. meanwhile, the white house is looking to prevent a wilder war following iran's massive missile attack against israel. the united states supports israel retaliating in some capacity, but president biden says he does not want them to attack tehran's nuclear facilities. >> tell us anything about iran and israel's possible retaliation. >> yes, look, i called the meeting in the g7 today. we're working on a joint statement all of us agree on from japan to france to germany to et cetera. and what we're doing in that record is we're making clear

that there's things that have to be done. and obviously iran has gone way off course. we're going to put together a joint statement, that hadn't been done yet. and there's going to be some sanctions on iran. the answer is no, and i think there's things -- we'll be discussing with the israelis what they're going to do, but all seven of us agree that they have a right to respond, but they should respond in course. >> joining us live from beirut is foreign correspondent for "the wall street journal." good to see you this morning. give us the latest there on the state of fighting including the deaths of these israeli soldiers. what's happening now? what more do we know? >> yeah, we saw yesterday some

engagements inside of lebanese territory between hezbollah and israeli forces that began entering late monday night. the israelis announced eight casualties, eight deaths among their soldiers -- soldiers and officers. and hezbollah talked about a trap they had set and explosive followed by gunfire in a couple of towns on the border. that was last night. that was yesterday. over the course of the day there's engagements. hezbollah said this morning it's continued to launch cross border rockets and missiles at the locations just across the border inside northern israel. and of course overnight as you mentioned there were some strikes inside of beirut, strikes across the country. yesterday's strike in beirut, one of them there were several in the southern suburbs, which

has been targeted repeatedly. for just the second time in the past few days there was a strike-outicide the southern suburbs, which is sort of the central part of the city. >> so certainly we just heard the president there saying he does not support israel as part of its retaliation striking an iranian nuclear site. i've got new reporting this morning. the u.s. really trying to urge israel to keep it proportional. they understand they're going to encourage him to respond in limited ways. military facilities and proxy groups. stay away from population centers and major economic installations. but we know that prime minister netanyahu, frankly, doesn't listen to president biden that much. and the president has run up against his influence there. what's the latest on the ground as to how and when israel will launch its retaliatory strike? >> yeah, the region is on edge waiting for the israeli response to iranians sending more than 100 ballistic missiles by israel

a few nights ago. it's unclear what their response will look like. of course there was a similar episode back in april where iran sent drones and missiles towards israel, most intercepted. the response from israel after that was quite limited, but we're in sort of a different space now, and the expectation here on the ground is that the response from israel this time will not be as limited, and that's driving concerns that this could spiral into an even broader conflict across the region. >> yes, something the u.s. has tried to avoid. certainly right, the u.s. has momentum and there's a israel wants to push this further. we're following efforts across the south following surear storm damage from hurricane helene. former president trump is getting a show of support from national security experts. we'll take a look who's backing

him but also notably who's not. those stories and a check on sports and weather when we come right back. sports and weather when we come right back power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis, help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley

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powering smarter savings. powering possibilities. switch to comcast busines internet and mobie and find out how to get te latest 5g phone on s with a qualifying trade-i. don't wait! call, click or visit an xfinity store today. welcome back. president biden will visit nra and georgia today as communities there try to pick up the pieces by the widespread devastation inflicted by hurricane helene. the death toll from the monster storm has now claimed at least 190 lives, and hundreds of other people remain missing. the president surveyed the damage in the carolinas yesterday, first taking an aerial tour of greenville county, south carolina. and then hard hit asheville, north carolina, where entire communities in that region were swept away by severe flooding. the president posted a picture on social media from inside the helicopter over western north

carolina calling the devastation he witnessed there heart breaking. later biden visited the emergency operations center in raleigh alongside north carolina governor roy cooper where he announced more federal aid for four states that includes deploying up to 1,000 active duty soldiers to reinforce the north carolina national guard. >> i don't have to tell this group that hurricane helene has been a storm really of historic proportions. the damage is still being assessed, but many people are still unaccounted for. so i'm here to say the united states, the nation has your back. the nation has your back. we're not leaving until you're back on your feet completely. >> meanwhile, a large number of national security experts have released a letter endorsing donald trump's bid for re-election. the group was organized by trump's fourth national security advisor, robert o'brien, and

includes over 300 signatories including u.n. ambassador nikki haley. the letter's release comes amid multiple global conflicts and claims that securing peace is the legacy of trump. notably this letter was not signed by trump's first secretary of state, rex tillerson, her his secretaries of defense, james mattis and mark esper. next up we'll turn to sports and we'll bring you the latest from a great day of major league baseball playoff action. we'll have highlights from all four wild card series including three sweeps. those stories and a check on the weather forecast when "way too early" returns. n "way too early" returns ♪ it wasn't hard with cologuard®, ♪ ♪ i did it my way! ♪ colo-huh? ♪ cologuard! ♪ cologuard is for people 45+ at average risk, not high risk. false positive and negative results may occur. screen for colon cancer in your home, your way. ask your provider for, ♪ cologuard ♪ ♪ ♪

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home-run gives the milwaukee brewers a late lead over the new york mets last night. mitchell's go ahead shot in the 8th inning came after jackson torrio tied the game as the brewers who were trailing late beat the mets 5-3 to force a decisive game three of their national league wild card series. heartbreaker there for the mets. the winner of tonight's contest in milwaukee will go onto face the nl east champion philadelphia phillies in the best of five national league division series. to san diego now. kyle's solo home-run sparked a five run rally for the padres the second inning. mannie machado and then jackson merrill following with a two run triple. they hold onto beat 5-4 for a two game sweep.

they did leave their pitcher, james musgrove, to injury. to the american league now. the baltimore orioles have been swept out of the playoffs for a second year in a row. bobby wit jr. with another hit last night beating out an infield single. the second baseman should have flipped. royals beat the o's 2-1. the royals will now face the al east champ wherein, the new york yankees. which means as of right now the kansas city royals, america's team. and then to houston. the detroit tigers have ended the rup of consecutive appearances. the cinderella tigers sweep the astros with that 5-2 win. the astros are out. the tigers will take on the al central champion cleveland

guardians in the best of five. we want to mention week five of the season kick off in atlanta with the falcons hosting the tampa bay buccaneers on thursday night football. time now for the weather and bring in meteorologist angie lassman with the forecast. >> i was in detroit this past weekend. it is electric. it's been long since we had a little playoff baseball there. big bickture look, looks kind of nice across the country. we don't have a lot of rain from coast to coast. just a couple showers and maybe a few thunderstorms across the state of florida. boy, do we have warmth. we've got 90s for albuquerque today, 105 for phoenix. the impressive heat streak continues there. even into chicago above normal in the mid-70s. it's going to be like that for the next couple of days running above normal for this time of year. then we turn our attention to this broad area of low pressure sitting in the gulf of mexico. whether it develops or not, that's the question. it has a low chance right now, 30%.

but either way it will bring some additional rainfall to folks across the gulf coast. louisiana specifically through today and out into the florida panhandle. as we get through the day tomorrow, we'll see more of this impacting folks across the state of florida too as ongoing cleanup happens there for the west coast of florida and pick up maybe an inch or two inches. as the big picture look for your friday, again, not a whole lot going on. it remains fairly quiet for the country. otherwise for the rockies and points west, we've got really nice conditions across the great lakes. that takes us into your saturday. again, really gorgeous conditions. plenty of sunshine coast to coast. if we're looking at cooler highs, maybe emore autumn-like conditions, we've got to look to the northern plains for that. otherwise it's the warmth that continues for most. >> that's the best forecast in a while. angie lassman, thanks so much. next up here we turn back to politics and new polling shows kamala harris and donald trump are still in a dead heat when it comes to the all important

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welcome back to "way too early." it is just before 5:30 a.m. here on the east coast, 2:30 out west on this thursday morning. i'm jonathan lemire. thank you for being with us. and we turn back to politics now, and new polling from the cook political report finds kamala harris leading or tied with donald trump in all but one

battleground state. according to this new survey of likely voters, harris leads trump by 2 points in arizona, the same as a poll that was conducted back in august. in georgia, cook does find trump leading by 2 points after he and harris had been tied there previously. in michigan, the vice president leads by 3 points, which was identical to august. she's also flipped a 3-point lead for trump in nevada into a 1-point margin of her own. north carolina, the race is tied. harris was up by just one point back in august. in pennsylvania the poll shows harris maintaining a 1-point lead. and in wisconsin harris leads by 2 points. that's down from the 3 points from the margin back in august. we should note as you can probably guess, all of these results are within the polls margin of error. joining us now politics reporter at semafor, cadilla goba.

big picture take, boy, the race is close. virtually every polling from every outlet and we're seeing it here from cook every battleground state within the margin of error. do you think the vice presidential debate from a couple nights ago, which is certainly not reflective in these numbers, do you think it'll make any difference at all. >> most republicans saying vance won and democrats saying that walz won, so i don't think it quite moved the needle so much. but i think -- i want to turn my attention to north carolina specifically. most people say that is a pathway for each candidate to win the electoral votes that they need. and we see republicans there sort of struggling especially at the top of the local ticket for the governor's race with mark robinson. we all know that a lot of people

saw that -- the scathing report from cnn. and what we're seeing now is his democratic candidate, you know, running away with the election of sorts. now, whether or not that impacts the top of the ticket with donald trump is an open question, but most republicans i've talked to on the ground and in congress say as long as trump is distancing himself, he'll be in a better position because typically in north carolina voters split the ticket. now the storm -- storm helene has impacted that as well, so voter turnout is going to be important here as well and i think for other swing states as well. >> i think you're right. at least this poll suggests robinson is under water but he's not dragging down trump.

the margin very small right now. gop advantage, and like it did in 2022 the control of the house this time around may also come down to some tight races in a deep blue state, new york. tell us about some of those you're watching? >> yeah, so definitely paying attention to those western new york -- new york 17, new york 19, mark molinaro who's defending his seat, mike lawler, a republican defending his seat who flipped those districts. also long island, the whole district of new york and anthony deesposito. looking at reporting right now, it seems harris hasn't caught up to the lead that biden had in

2020, but she's definitely higher than he was when he was in the race, so i think that's interesting to see what this month will bring. i think it's going to be very close, so like you say it's a blue state, and it's not clear what -- well, it won't impact the electoral count especially for the presidential race, but it could damage democrats or -- democrats trying to win back the house. >> and lastly, kadia, very briefly, turn to the upper chamber in the senate. democrats, a lot of pessimism picking up on their chances in montana, senator tester in danger there. they lose that, they'd have to pick up somewhere on the map to maintain control. what's the latest you're hearing? >> yeah, i mean it is -- i do not hear a lot of positive stuff coming out of montana, but i think people are looking at arizona right now with

representative guillego. and i think you'll see a different spending pattern change in the last few weeks of the race as well. >> we appreciate the reporting. kadia, thank you again. next up here we'll go live to cnbc for an early look what's driving stocks this morning. plus, analysts say that the market value of the social media site x, ie, twitter, has dropped by nearly 80%. we'll talk about what this could mean for the company's owner, elon musk, when we come right back. owner, elon musk, when we come right back

what do people want more of? more “oh yeah!” more laughs. more hang outs. more “mmmmm, so good!” yeah, give us more of all of that little stuff that makes life so great. but if you're older or or have certain health conditions, you also have more risk from flu, covid-19 and rsv. but vaccines help keep you from getting really sick. and that, is huge.

time now for business, and for that let's bring in cnbc's carolin roth, who joins us live from london. good morning. stock futures are in the red today as investors are looking ahead to the jobs report due out tomorrow. give us a sense as to where the market is going.

>> look, obviously there's some sense of trepidation ahead of that all important jobs report. we know the fed now favors the jobs outlook over the inflationary outlook. it's made it very clear. so we're expecting a figure about around 150,000 when we get to that jobs report. today we get the jobless claims. also we're going to be digesting tesla's numbers. we'll talk about that in just a second. >> yeah, let's move into the elon musk portion of our segment starting with tesla, which posted an increase in sales for the first time all year, but its shares dropped as investors were hoping for. tell us what this says writ large about electric cars, or was this a specific concern about this brand? >> look, the numbers and such weren't bad. actually the uptick in terms of revenues or deliveries of 6% was an improvement over past quarters. however, i will say the stock has had a really good runup over the past couple of weeks because

the of robo taxi event taking place next week and whether that will be the key growth driver going forward. a lot of analysts i talked to said they're still skeptical saying before the robo taxis become reality. the real expectations when it came to deliveries the past quarter, that was a lot higher. so i think maybe a bit of fatigue selling and maybe a bit of profit taking here, but actually deliveries were strong. they weren't bad. >> all right, let's talk about another musk enterprise, which is "x," formerly known as twitter. and estimates from the investment giant, fidelity, show it is worth significantly -- i'm talking significantly less than when elon bought it. tell us more. >> yes, 80% less than when elon musk bought it roughly two years ago for $44 billion. obviously he's taken the company private. that would be a big drop for him, for his wealth, obviously,

and for all the backers. obviously a lot of backers here when it comes to loans that were offered to elon musk when he bought that company. the major concern around twitter or now "x" is obviously the advertising clients. they're were aetd about the content moderation given some of the content that we're finding on the platform right now. so a lot of work to be done here on that front. >> the importance of content moderation particularly as we barrel into an election. cnbc's carolin roth, live from london, thank you as always. next up here back to politics, and j.d. vance is changing his tune from tuesday night's vice presidential debate. he was civil then, yesterday mocking. we'll play for you the republican senator's comments during a campaign event in michigan when we come right back. campaign event in michigan when we come right back

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xfinity mobile was designed for where you need it most. xfinity internet customers, ask how to get a free 5g phone and a second unlimited line free for a year. republican vice presidential nominee j.d. vance returned to the campaign trail yesterday and immediately dropped the cordial

tone he adopted during tuesday night's running mate debate. who could have ever predicted that? at a rally near detroit vance mocked vp nominee tim walz for misspeaking on the debate stage the previous night. >> it's funny because, you know, we did this debate, and then i talked to the president afterwards, and we talked a little bit about, you know, what actually happened, and, you know, some of the points that i made, some of the points that governor walz made. and he made this observation. he said that tim walz said that he was friends with school shooters twice. and i said that was probably only the third or mourgt miscomment tim walz made that night. >> walz of course meant victims of school shootings, but no blow too low. vance was also asked by reporters why he refused to say trump lost the 2020 election while he was pressed by walz on that subject during the debate. here's how walz justified the response.

>> here's the simple reason. the media obsessed with talking about the election of four years ago. i'm focused on the election of 33 days from now, because i want to throw kamala harris out of office and get back to common sense economic policies. but i also think you can believe that america needs to have secure and free elections but also talk about the fact that just a couple of weeks ago democrats in the u.s. congress blocked a piece of legislation that would have ensured illegal aliens don't vote in our elections. if you believe american democracy, if you believe in our constitutional republic, you should be trying to strengthen election integrity and not weaken it. >> illegal aliens already don't vote in american elections. joining us now author, columnist and conservative writer, matt lewis. matt, you've been thinking about writing about this subject on the vp candidates after the debate the other night. it was -- it was strikingly

cordial, but that was clearly a tactic from vance to disarm some potential attacks. yesterday we saw him revert to the real thing. >> yes, i think it was sort of a bait and switch. if you were tim walz and you were showing up ready to take on j.d. vance and he's going to attack me on my military record or whatever, that j.d. vance didn't show up. and so it really was a different j.d. vance. in one sense i think we maybe want to applaud the civility. it was a little refreshing, but i also think there's some phoniness there, you know, where these guys maybe talk tough about the other guy when he's not around but in person act nice. so, you know, maybe a little -- a little phoniness and authenticity there, and i think it may be part of vance's m.o. anyway. >> yeah, there was certainly a sense among the pundit class that vance -- look, he was

smooth. in terms of performance and style points, he was very good. the idea he won the first 88 minutes of the debate what lost the last two, and that was the moment he was asked about there, where he refused to say if trump lost in 2020, the harris team already turned that into an ad, do you think that's what's going to resonate in the days and weeks ahead? >> well, look, at first i thought it was so funny, right, vance refuses to answer whether donald trump won in 2020, saying he doesn't want to relitigate the past. then his next -- very next thing he said was and what about kamala harris in 2020, or something to that effect. so obviously his boss, donald trump, has no problem being obsessed with relitigating the past. it's not like a it's a small thing. indeed, i think the question of whether donald trump or joe biden actually won the 2020 election, may be one of the defining questions of our time. as to whether he gets away with it politically, i think if we were just -- if people just to watch the debate, he would,

right? because it came very late in the night. a lot of people had turned the channel. i think the real question is whether kamala harris' campaign can make people see it by virtue of advertisements and social media. and if she can't do it, i think it's pretty devastating. >> in coincidence that moment was followed up the next day by this jack smith filing being unsealed which unfazed mike pence was in danger during the january 6th riots and the like. this is, i don't know it qualifies as an october surprise, but it certainly was a moment trump's conduct was going to be in the headlines again. do you think it's going to matter here as we're now about a month before election day? >> on one hand i'm tempted to say it's baked into the cake of people who think it's bad what happened on january 6th are going to continue to think it's

bad, and donald trump supporters are going to continue to rationalize it. i have to tell you this anecdotally. i spoke to a friend in west virginia yesterday who's a trump supporter and asked him very earnestly why weren't mike pence -- why isn't he the running mate, and i explained they wanted to kill mike pence, and so maybe there are some folks out there who -- that this could impact. >> yeah, certainly the fundamental question about this campaign. author, columnist, and conservative writer, matt lewis, thank you as always. up next here we're going to, ohio, and what he plans to do if he is re-elected. then, coming up on "morning joe," we've got more live reporting from beirut, as israel continues its ground inflation in lebanon and weighs a response to iran's massive missile attack. plus, a panel of legal analysts is standing by with their takeaways from special counsel jack smith's new filing

in the january 6th case. plus, former white house aide, cassidy hutchinson, who was a witness in the congressional investigation into the capitol attack, we'll weigh in on that, as well. also ahead, we're joined by transportation secretary pete buttigieg. he'll be a guest as the dock worker strike enters its third day. "morning joe" just a few moments away. and the engine finally roars the thing you care about most is a job well done. ♪♪ but when you get your tools from harbor freight something about the job feels a little different - your wallet. because we believe no matter what you're working on you need high quality tools at a great price. and that's what we're all about. ♪♪ whatever you do, do it for less, at harbor freight. ♪♪

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welcome back. in an interview with news nation, donald trump said if he wins in november, he'd revoke the temporary protected status granted to haitian migrants in springfield, ohio. >> in springfield, what's happening there is horrible. you have a beautiful community, 52,000 people. about 30,000 people were put into that community rapidly, and the community is so nice and they want to be so politically correct. you have to remove the people. you cannot -- we cannot destroy our country. you had a beautiful, safe community. everyone is in love with everybody. everything was nice. it was like a picture community.

all of a sudden, in a short period of time, they have 32,000 more people in there. in my opinion, it's not legal. it's not legal for anybody to do. it's not even on a human basis, it's not acceptable. to the people that are there and certainly to the people that are in springfield. springfield is a beautiful place. have you seen what's happened to it? it's been overrun. you can't do that to people. they have to be removed. >> let's be clear what this is. trump is saying he is going to deport legal immigrants. joining us now, msnbc contributor mike barnicle. mike, thanks for being here. let's talk about trump's rhetoric on immigration. most of what he said there simply not true. despite being told by fellow republicans, including the republican governor of ohio, he just will not let up his relentless bashing, relentless and, frankly, racist bashing of these immigrants. >> when we were showing the clip

we just saw and listened to it, it causes me again to wonder, how many people, how many americans out there are going to shrug their shoulders and say, you know what? i'm exhausted. this guy is exhausting me. this guy has been impeached twice. this guy has been adjudicated a rapist by a new york judge. this guy is a felon. he's got five or six felony counts against him. this guy cannot tell the truth. this guy twists everything, a reality into something of his own concoction. i can't do it anymore. i'm not going to vote for him. i voted for him in '16. they say voted for him in '20. how many americans are out there saying, no, i want to talk about my children going forward, their schools, the safety of the schools. i want to talk about grocery prices. i want to talk about gas prices. i do not want to listen to him. >> the exhaustion factor, i think, is real. certainly, the harris campaign hopes it permeates the ballot

box. at the same time, polls suggest that nearly half the country still on board with this, and donald trump has a one in two chance of winning. what does that say about who we are? >> that's a great question, jonathan. i keep thinking that, you know, 10, 20 years from now when historians try to capture this period of time culturally, politically, what happened in this country, they'll look at what has happened and what is happening right in front of all of us right now, and they'll say, what was wrong with those people? what that they did not see, did not recognize? >> such an indictment. speaking of potential indictments, let's talk about jack smith. yesterday, unsealing a filing that had a lot of new details about trump's conduct, his efforts to overturn the 2020 election and his conduct on january 6th, particularly when it comes to mike pence, when it seemed that he was completely unmoved that his vice president's life was in danger.

does this qualify as an october surprise? >> no, i don't think so. i think it qualifies as recognizing that judge chutkan is saying to the supreme court, take this. no one agrees with the ruling you people concocted, that declared that every president has immunity from nearly everything. take this. it's just a kernel of what jack smith has found, apparently. i don't know whether it has an impact or not. i don't think it is an october surprise. the october surprise will happen out of the middle east. >> let's revisit that in a second. on this, there's also an unnamed trump campaign staffer who even said, make them riot, when there was some disturbances at a local campaign office. how much -- if you were counseling the harris campaign right now, how much would january 6th, defense of democracy, be one of your close arguments? it worked for democrats in 2020 and 2022.

president biden drove that. do you think it's still that this time around? >> i do. i think every day, he will give you something else. trump will give you something else. he will give you another gift in terms of running against him. depends on how the vice president packages it. >> okay. let's go back to the middle east. we're awaiting what israel's response will be to the iranian attack earlier this week. it's jewish new year's. maybe it'll wait until after that. you eluded to it, that this could be something that changes the calculation domestically. think that's what prime minister netanyahu has in mind? >> given his behavior towards this administration, both outwardly and what you certainly hear in washington from people, what you pick up in terms of sources between netanyahu and president biden, yeah, i think netanyahu has it in his mind that we're going to attack iran. we're going to wipe out their oil refineries, which will cause

gas prices to jump up here in the next two or three weeks. i don't care what joe biden thinks. that's what he thinks, okay? but when you look at it on paper, you've got to ask yourself, realistically, seriously, his country was attacked by a next-door neighbor. if we were attacked, we would strike back very, very hard. i mean, i would hope we would. that's what the israelis are doing. it's a tough balance, i think, to figure out both emotionally and politically for the united states of america. >> we'll have live reporting from the middle east in a moment on "morning joe." we'll see you on "morning joe," as well. >> really? you'll ask me on? >> you have to stay. it was a good booking for us. >> wow. >> msnbc contributor mike barnicle making his "morning joe" debut in a few moments. won't want toiss that. mike, thank you. and thank you for all of you getting up "way too early" on this thursday morning. "morning joe" starts right now. i don't believe that we have the luxury of writing in candidates'